“It’s
a different story in the market for individual policies, which are
typically purchased by the self-employed, people who work for small
companies that don’t offer insurance and others who don’t work.
This is a small portion of the health-insurance market, which might
explain why Obama and his advisers didn’t give it much thought at
the outset. Only about 15 million Americans are insured through an
individual policy, according to the Kaiser
Family Foundation, while 10 times as many — 150 million people
— get health insurance through an employer. (Most other Americans
either get coverage through a government program or go without.)
White House spokesman Jay Carney has tried to downplay
the cancellation flap by pointing out repeatedly that the
individual market represents just 5% of Americans. “
Earlier this month when the ACA creakily rolled out, I pointed out
that at least finally we would have actual hard data and facts about
the whole thing instead of the greatly exaggerated and misused
statistics that both sides of the coin have been trotting out for
years. I made the point that despite what people love to think,
statistics are just numbers and depending on them can lead to all
sorts of problems. I was greatly derided by a lot of people who
depend on those numbers as the “facts” they need to prove their
argument. Well, Santa cam early and gave me a present that
completely illustrates exactly what I meant when I said that.
So the big flap over past week or so is that 100s of thousands of
people are receiving notices from their insurers that their policies
are being canceled. Of course the large chunk of these policies are
essentially Trash Policies that are little better than having no
insurance at all. (Case in point one woman who had a policy where
she paid $50.00 a month and her insurance paid $50.00 towards her
doctors visits and $11.00 towards her medications and she paid
everything else. Unless she was visiting the doctor more than one
time a month, she was being ripped off.) Still the whys and
wherefores of the insurance quality isn't the source of this little
rant.
The WH and its advisers were well aware that there was a possibility
that people could lose their insurance once the plan rolled out due
to many plans not meeting minimum requirements under the ACA. They
looked at the statistical data and saw that a mere 5% (Potentially
10% according to some sources.) could lose their insurance and be
forced to buy much more expensive policies. They pondered it and
decided that 5% out of 100% was pretty good odds and rolled on.
(As an aside here, I'd like to point out that the 5% represented here
is the total number of Americans insured under individual policies,
not the actual number who will lose coverage.)
Statistically speaking, the move makes sense. Your actions only
affect 5% of a group so the idea seems solid enough to work. The
overall numbers support your actions. Until you stop and look at the
facts behind the numbers. Estimates by independent analysis sources
show that as many as 10 million people could and probably will lose
their insurance coverage under the ACA. Whether the policies they
have are great policies or not, they can still lose them.
Considering we are talking about an idea that was supposed to gather
more people under the insurance banner, this seems a little bit dumb.
The WH and Democrats looked at the Statistics and went with the odds.
On paper, the numbers supported their actions. Hells, from a purely
statistical POV they still do. 95 out of a hundred isn't too bad a
score. However, the Facts show that more thoughts and more planning
was desperately needed for this to have any hope of working. 5% of
people losing their insurance doesn't sound horrible, but 10 Million
people losing their insurance sounds grim. Statistics are clean and
neat, but the real world isn't anywhere near clean or neat. Numbers
don't show the pain and suffering. Real people living real lives do.
End of Rant
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