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Wednesday, June 5, 2013

89% of all Statistics are made up on the spot.

(Okay before we go any further, I want to apologize.  The Blog Title really has no relation to the actual blog, it is just one of my favorite funny quotes and since the blog is about statistics it seemed right.  Anyho, onward!)


http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4859627679777572&pid=1.7&w=185&h=177&c=7&rs=1
Now this chart shows that blue lines are dominant.
     As most of you who read my blogs (Hey to all 4 of you!) know, I generally have more issues with the comments at the end of any given article than I do with the article itself.  I tend to be most unkind to the not so clever responses that many people make.  I have even used descriptions that might not have been the kindest.  Words like: Idiots, Morons and Dimbulbs come to mind and some were even worse than that.  Well, I read this article with the misleading headline and then scrolled through the comments section and for once actually found myself agreeing with the spirit if not exactly the wording of many of the comments.
     First a comment or two on the article itself.  First of all the headline is misleading.  At not time do the words "predisposed to commit violent crimes" appear in the quotes attributed to the Judge mentioned in the article.  Secondly I have problems with an article and by extension the lawsuit mentioned based off of hearsay.  "No transcript or recording exists of the speech, according to the Federalist Society."  No transcripts means there is no physical evidence to prove or disprove the accusation and that means it is all based on hearsay."
     Now the Judge does mention that statistically speaking, there are more Minorities on Death Row and that Statistically speaking Minorities commit a much large percentage of Violent Crimes.  She does not state outright in anyway that a Minority is Predisposed.  She pointed out that numbers show a disproportionate amount of Minorities are arrested every single year.
Some Random Numbers (Thanks Wiki)
     "As noted above, scholars acknowledge that some racial and ethnic minorities, particularly African Americans, are disproportionately represented in the arrest and victimization reports which are used to compile crime rate statistics in the United States. The data from 2008 reveals that Black Americans are over-represented in terms of arrests made in virtually all types of crime, with the exceptions of "Driving under the influence" and "Liquor laws". Overall, Black Americans are arrested at 2.6 times the per-capita rate of all other Americans, and this ratio is even higher for murder (6.3 times) and robbery (8.1 times)."
     " The imprisonment rates indicate that about 0.5% of all white males, more than 3.0% of all black males, and 1.2% of all Hispanic males were imprisoned in 2011. Between 6.6% and 7.5% of all black males ages 25 to 39 were imprisoned in 2011, which were the highest imprisonment rates among the measured sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age groups."
     So in a purely technical sense, the Judge's comments were correct.  Politically Incorrect, but numerically correct and the Comments at the bottom of the article gleefully point that out.  After all, the Judge was quoting confirmed Data.
     Now I am reminded of an old quote forget who it is by, "You can prove anything with statistics."  The problem with statistics which everyone on any side of any argument love to rattle off is that statistics are only numbers. Basic data and nothing more.  Statistics don't, as a general rule, delve into the actual cause and effects.  It is all well and good to say, "88% of all Watermelon Massacres were done by Farmers in Melon Fields" as proof that all Farmers everywhere regardless of planting style are mad melon manglers  (Say that five times fast!  I dare you!)
     It is very easy to quote statistics that show that Minorities commit more crimes that non-minorities and even find the numbers to back up your quote, but those numbers don't tell us anything about the overreaching causes and background that drive those numbers.  Why is X more likely to do Y?  What are the driving forces behind it.  If you accept the fact that there is no physical reason for one group to be more violent and engage in crimes than another group, then there have to be other forces driving the numbers.  In the end, numbers are only numbers nothing more.
     Huh, think I got a little off my original rant there.  To recap the original rant, Article Bad!  Fibs about what Judge say!  Comments not so dumb as normal!  Ugh!
End of Rant


1 comment:

  1. In my community, these stats are probably even more lopsided.

    In my community, the high-arrest-rate community is also responsible for a significantly disproportionate number of calls to law enforcement requesting help, an officer, an investigation or to report a crime.

    LE will make arrests where they work. LE will work where they are called. Where LE is called, they go.

    ReplyDelete