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Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Ukraine, We Kraine, everbody Kraine revisted or Is it cold out here or it is just me?

     So as the dance that is Russia/Ukraine continues its slowly speeding up waltz where a fairly predictable outcome is in sight (Afghanistan anyone?) and the EU and the US are using every single trick in our non-violent and sneaky arsenals to try and slow if not stop the impending festivities.  We are hurling harsh words, dire promises and sanctions at Russia like monkeys throw poop at tourists, but unlike said BMs, all of our efforts really don't seem to be doing much good.  Russia appears to be resolute in their drive to "liberate" the rest of the Ukraine.
     As I brought up in a previous installment, the question on everyone's mind should be, "Where do we go from here?"  I'm no expert on diplomacy or the military so my thoughts should always be taken with a grain of salt however the way things are going, I really don't see many more options other than a direct military action by somebody somewhere.  So exactly what the fudge are people gonna do now?
     The main obstacle I see in any sort of confrontation with our buddies in the old USSR is that Russia is a very very big boy with lots and lots of weapons, bombs and various soldier type people.  So any sort of military actions is gonna stir up a whole lot of mess that I doubt any of the other nations really wants to deal with.  I mean, it isn't like rolling the troops out to hit Afghanistan or Iraq or making threatening moves toward Iran or other trouble makers.
     Of course, we can just keep making threats and levering sanctions while trying to sound as if we aren't nervous about the fact that so far at least, Russia shows no signs of being willing to concede or give an inch.  I mean it kind of worked for a long time with late great Cold War, didn't it?  Well, not exactly (See Afghanistan and all of the other places the USSR made trouble for during that same time period.), but lets pretend that it really worked.  If it worked then, why can't it work now?
     Well, besides a whole grocery list of problems with launching Cold War II , the main problem I see with it all is we aren't dealing with the same Russia any more.  Historians will tell you that Russia's main obstacle to total badassery was the style of government they had.  Communism was their main limiting force.  Now with the fall of the USSR and the birth of a much more free enterprise friendly Russia, nearly all the old limitations that kept Russia from doing whatever it wanted to at least on a resource level.
     So, now what?  If Russia is truly intent on going back to its previous expansionist policies, there is really nothing stopping them short of all out war.  Russia has access to enough resources to fuel its growth until such time as its new acquisitions start producing.  So what happens if they don't give in and decide to keep going?  Well, whatever happens I am pretty sure it will not be boring.

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