So
the big thought type work today seems to indicate a shocking
possibility in the ongoing fiasco that is the Russia/Ukraine/Rest of
the World event playing out now. Imagine my surprise when I read
someone actually say the unbelievable idea that, now that Momma
Russia has gained a significant foothold in the Ukraine via “aiding”
Crimean citizens, they are rather unlikely to stop what they are
doing no matter what sanctions, cancellations and strongly worded
letters may come their way. Huh, pardon me while I say, “DUH!”
Anyone
who knows any teensy bit of history knows that the Big Red Nation
isn't exactly well known for giving into pressures when it is in the
business of “helping” other countries. Usually the only time the
Old Lady changes her mind is when guns, explosives and really loud
BOOMs come into play and even then it takes a lot to get her moving.
How long did the whole Middle East thing last before they bailed?
In
a figurative sense Russia has dug her heels into Crimea under the
reasoning of helping Russian Speaking Crimeans in a time of strive
and violence. With overwhelming force on their side, they have
issues ultimatums to disarm to the armed forces there and even
ordered the soldiers to switch allegiances. The Ukrainian Forces are
so out matched that, even if they wanted to resist, all they can
really do is hide behind the fences and barriers of their bases and
pray that the Russian Troops don't get surly.
So,
there sits Russia in a zone that is friendly to them with
overwhelming power to back them up with little if any real chance of
native forces doing any real damage to them. They know that any
other nations in the world are extremely unlikely to use any sort of
military force against them. Any sanctions that might be sent their
way will be reminiscent of the sanctions enforced during the Cold War
and Russia already knows they can survive those. There is nothing on
the table currently that would make Russia want to give up what it
has captured in Crimea.
As
a matter of fact, Russia has no real incentives not to just continue
to move on to the remaining parts of the Ukraine. Since Russian
Speaking/Russia :Loyal people live pretty much every where in the
country, the forces of Moscow could continue its claim of helping the
people to excuse moving on and capturing more of the country.
Given
Russia's rather checkered history of conquest and annexation, anyone
who is actually holding out hope that not attending meetings or
economic sanctions will help turn the tide and change Russia's mind
about staying in the Ukraine or even expanding outwards needs a
serious wake up call. The Presidents of the various nations can
sound cross all they want to, but they will find Russia a tad deaf.
If Russia decides to pull back from its foothold in Crimea, it will
be because Russia decides to...or until US armed Freedom Fighters
hiding in the hills firing American made SCUD missiles at them. No
sooner and no later than that.
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